Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Thank you Tea Party for your help in November...

I wonder if the teabaggers realize that they're handing several states to the Dems in November? They're riding high on their victories last night, ignorant of the fact that primaries are always a contest of who can pander the most to their fringe followers (something the tea party candidates excel at). They don't seem to realize that last night wasn't the general election.

Extremists are always rewarded in party primaries since extremists show up far more for primaries/caucuses. The real test will be in November.

Normally, candidates will run to the fringe for the primary and then immediately run to the center for the general election. This is hard enough for a regular candidate, it's going to be nearly impossible for the teapartiers. If you want an example just ask Sharron Angle. She tried to disown some of her more extreme statements from the primary but there's video and screencaps of her website.

Tea party candidates are not able to run to the center like other Republicans do. They owe their entire existence to those extremists, they can't just disown them now that they're the nominees. I personally think they're going to find November isn't nearly as forgiving as the summer was.

They could very well have handed several seats to the Democrats (Nevada, Alaska, Delaware, NY Governor, etc...) that would have otherwise been easy Republican wins. The Nevada Senate seat was all but ripe for the Republicans to take. Harry Reid is hardly popular among the conservative population of Nevada. He was losing to generic Republican candidate in polls. Now that Angle is there, he's suddenly looking a lot safer for reelection. Same thing in Delaware. Mike Castle would have coasted to victory easily, now the Republicans have all but conceded the seat since O'Donnell has no chance of winning (Delaware isn't Alaska and it's not Alabama). Alaska may still go Republican despite the lunatic they've put forward as their nominee for the Senate (they did elect Palin after all) but it's far less likely than it would have been if the incumbent had won the primary.

Republicans love the tea parties because they think it's a way to excite their base and win elections, they may find that the power displayed in the primaries doesn't hold up when every American gets to vote.